The supply-demand imbalance (disturbances in Myanmar and Africa) and the off-season demand have created a tug-of-war. SHFE tin prices may remain high and range-bound in the afternoon. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 11, 2025

As of the midday break today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) was quoted at 265,840 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.81% from the previous trading day, continuing to fluctuate rangebound.

Slow Resumption of Production in Myanmar's Wa Region: Although production resumed at the end of April, strict logistics inspections at the China-Myanmar border and extended processing times for mining licenses have delayed the actual increase in tin ore output until July. Starting from June 4, the Thai government has banned Myanmar from transporting tin ore through its territory, which is expected to reduce domestic imports by approximately 500-1,000 mt (metal content) in June, exacerbating the tight raw material supply for smelters.

Cautious Downstream Procurement: The spot market has shown low acceptance for prices above 260,000 yuan/mt, with weakened willingness to restock at lower prices. Spot premiums have narrowed, and transactions are primarily driven by immediate needs.

China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultations: Positive signals were released during the phone call between the Chinese and U.S. presidents and the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation meeting, raising market expectations for a marginal easing of tariff policies. However, the actual transmission of demand still requires time.

The most-traded contract is expected to continue fluctuating rangebound within the 262,000-266,000 yuan/mt range. The supply-demand imbalance (due to disruptions in Myanmar and Africa) and the off-season demand have created a tug-of-war, compounded by fluctuating expectations for macro policies, resulting in a lack of unilateral price drivers. If LME tin prices stabilize above $32,600/mt (equivalent to 265,000 yuan/mt for SHFE tin) in the afternoon, it may stimulate bears to exit the market, leading to a slight price rally.